- This topic has 11 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 8 months, 1 week ago by DrognorIronfist.
- Thursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205478crua9Participant
So something investors in the stock market and now more recently this market have seen in reports is things like “past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.”
Many look at this and just assume it is saying what it means and figure TA is = to reading tea leaves or \_\_\_insert troll comment here\_\_. In reality, most don’t ask why is so much energy, time, and many times money is put into this info if “past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.”
It is the same reason why people put in the “this isn’t financial advice” disclaimers in post, videos, articles, etc even when it is clearly exactly financial advice. It is a, legal “get out of jail” free card. See there is no way to prove what people are thinking or what they are giving info for. Like is it a joke? Is it real? etc. So is that financial advice? Is that just for kicks but not education? Is it for education but not advice? Is it someone’s personal thoughts written down/verbally said but not meant for others to act on?
The fact is TA at best can take hours of someone’s life and a good amount of mental power to make. At worse, it can take months. And we aren’t talking about a few minutes here and there over a month. We are talking about nearly a full time job just for 1 report, post, video, etc. And it isn’t like if you hit a wall infinite amount of times in theory you will go through the wall at least 1 time, and that 1 time is what matters.
# Past performance is the best indicator of future results.
This is the reality of things. Like think about it for a second. If past performance isn’t the best indicator, then why change and improve things over time? Why don’t farmers grow summer crops in winter if past performance isn’t the best indicator of future results? I’m sure you can think of thousands of other things where past performance is the best indicator of future results.
# Past performance isn’t a 100% of future results.
So why do TA at all? If it isn’t a 100% then why try it. Well, it is the same reason why your boss gives you task you done in the past, and abuse you in a way over and over and over until you quit or something else happens. Past results show the boss can abuse you and other people in a given way and get away with it. And therefore, they assume in the future they can keep getting away with it which is highly likely.
So basically, if a guess is something like 50/50. The TA needs to at least be better than 50% correct indicator of future results. But the question is, how much better over 50% = to energy, time, and so on put into something. In reality, you will find most places require TA to be right 70%-80% of the time.
# So why does the line goes up or down?
It is mostly human phycology. Ask what is price
>Price is basically when buyers and sellers agree on a given price to trade at the time.
Lets say every retail investor tomorrow stops selling BTC. The price will skyrocket AS LONG AS the buyers are willing to buy it at higher prices. This is thanks to supply and demand on exchanges.
So now we need to take look at why someone buys or sells, and look at it as a group. Like we don’t care about Joe Blow at 555 street New York city. No single person outside of whales can change the market in any real way. So, we care more about people as a group. And this gets into
* General news that the average person gets and how it relates to the asset
* Education the general person will have on the topic
The average person is an idiot because they are overworked, under paid, most likely don’t have retirement at the later years, most likely 1 medical bill from being on the street, most likely deals with kids, and most like has a day like (wake up, get ready for work and maybe get kids ready for school, drive to a job they hate, work a job they hate while doing whatever to not get fired, go home from a job they hate, make food and maybe deal with kids, get ready for the next day, and sleep. Where there is 0 time to learn about this stuff outside of 2 minute conversations with co-workers or family members. And none of this is a 2 minute conversation. And note this is a major reason why dog coins are sought after. You can explain them to anyone, while ETH is impossible to explain in 2 minutes.)
Speaking of, if you are one of these idiots then this should help. [https://www.thedailyupside.com/](https://www.thedailyupside.com/) It sends you short articles for free about markets and what not.
# But does that mean stock price and crypto prices have nothing to do with what the company/project makes?
Lets say if I had a company that found a cure to cancer, fat, and so on. If no one knows about it, then it might as well not be a product at all.
How many people know about Pfizer? Does the average person know about it?
What about T2 Biosystems Inc? What about Odyssey Marine Exploration?
>A shipwreck that yielded an estimated $500 million treasure, which could turn out to be the richest ever found.
But their stock almost never moves.
At the end, it PR is what matters above all else. Like what people think of the company or asset, and if they think it is worth it.
Think of it like recycling. If you look it up, recycling was heavily lobby and push by oil companies. The oil industry has been recorded openly admitting most of what people recycle ends up in the trash anyways (like around 9% of plastic recycled is actually recycled. 91% is goes to landfills). And the point is to make people feel good and feel like they are doing something, even when they are doing virtually nothing at all.
^(Note: I’m not saying all recycling is pointless. Metals, paper, and stuff like that tends to get used. Plastic however is heavily used. You can look at the numbers here) [^(https://www.greenmatters.com/p/what-percent-recycling-actually-gets-recycled)](https://www.greenmatters.com/p/what-percent-recycling-actually-gets-recycled)
So basically, does the general population or enough of the population think x coin is going to go up? If so, then the price goes up. It doesn’t matter the project or anything else unless if it causes the general population in thinking the price will go up or they need the asset in some way (for example, using it like SAND or MANA)
Oh, and none of this is financial advice and I’m not a financial advisor.Thursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205479MattCrypto420
This was a very long way to explain that just because something has/hasn’t happened in the past doesn’t mean it will/will not happen againThursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205480nanaymonaenae
Yup, TA is just a guide. Some people treat it like a gospel as if it predicts everything right.Thursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205481nanaymonaenae
TLDR: Hire a really good PR teamThursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205482Maxx3141
It’s the same as flipping a coin once and expecting it to land on the same side forever.Thursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205483TruthSeeekeer
> The average person is an idiot
Good thing I’m below average then!Thursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205484Raj_UK
It also means the generally agreed upon halving 4 year cyclical performance is not guaranteed for future halvingsThursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205485Wonzky
So basically HypeThursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205486Breaking_Crypt
Money goes in, money goes up!
Next time, money doesn’t come out.Thursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205487MiddleFingerFool
Yeah bro, we follow Willy Woo too.Thursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205488teh_d3ac0n
TLDR; previous ATH are not guaranteed, plus hype train and FOMO is the best marketingThursday, March 31st, 2022 at 17:18 #205489DrognorIronfist
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”.
– Mark Twain
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