- This topic has 23 replies, 1 voice, and was last updated 1 month, 3 weeks ago by yayaoa.
- Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349840fan_of_hakiksexydaysParticipant
# Bear behavior is similar to bull behavior right after we crashed from $69K:
Remember when we started to crash down from $69K, after the bull market peaked, and bulls were the ones in denial?
Bulls were saying it was a fake drop and we would bounce back to eventually $100K. It was “obviously manipulation”. The drop was gonna be a bear trap.
Now that the bear market may have bottomed, we are starting to see the exact same thing from bear.
I’m seeing comments and posts about these latest rallies being fake, and probably manipulation. It will eventually crash to $10K. How it doesn’t make sense, and how it’s a bull trap.
It’s been well over a month since we were supposed to be in a bull trap.
We dropped all the way down to $17.6K on June 18, and haven’t found as new low since. And somehow managed to get as high as $24K.
# Bears have begun to switch their narratives:
The more telling sign is that bears have started to switch their narrative. The main narrative of bears has been macro economics, and the plunge into a recession.
The initial idea was that, if average Joe is struggling, he won’t be able to buy much crypto. That’s assuming average Joe really is the market mover in crypto.
Inflation was increasing, gas prices went sky high, home prices too, it was tightening the budget of average Joe.
The only flaw remaining in their argument, was that unemployment was still low, in a year when wages increased the most in decades. So most average Joes still had money.
But bears brushed that off and said mass layoffs and rising unemployment were coming.
But now those increased unemployment numbers didn’t come. And unemployment is continuing to drop.
What’s worse is oil prices have plunged from $123 to $89. And the housing market is cooling off. While the supply chain is continuing its recovery.
Energy was the #1 culprit of the increased CPI numbers. In fact, if you removed energy from the last CPI data, it wouldn’t have had any increase.
The whole reason for Fed hikes has been CPI.
Lower CPI means the Fed won’t have to be aggressive with rate hikes.
So now I’ve started to see bears switch their narratives that if the economy and all those things are starting to do better, that means we’re unlikely to see Fed printing any money to bailout a struggling market.
So we won’t see any bull market for crypto and will remain in a bear market. Based on the assumption that the stimulus is what caused the crypto bull market (if you check my past post on this, you will see that it’s not entirely true).
Economy going to shit was what they originally said would cause the bear market. But now some bears have started to switch to the economy going well being bearish.
# How we bottomed in the last bear market.
The evidence is growing, and the picture is looking increasingly less in favor of bear narratives.
You only have to look at how we bottomed in the last bear market.
While the timeline is shorter (probably because we also had a premature and shorter bull market), the magnitude, and most importantly the ratio is almost the same, with a similar over 40% drop.
We had the same period of stagnation (crabbing), before crashing under the final support. Before crashing into limbo, but with a slowly growing uptrend.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349852Ferdo306
I don’t know, I still feel it’s gonna be a crab market for a while, at least till spring 2023
But yeah, doesn’t mean we haven’t already found a bottomFriday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349863yayaoa
What if we are in a bull market inside of a bearmarket which again is inside the real bullmarket because there was no blowoff top?
And what if bears are actually lions eating zebras and bulls are aliens with stonehengesized balls?Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349862someliskguy
As the crypto market gets larger the scams become more heavily levered and capital intensive which actually makes shaking them out more efficient.
It only took ETH dropping from $4k to $2k to bring down most of the DeFi “guaranteed return” scams. This sub screamed “crash & crypto winter!” when a 50% drop used to be a common occurrence in trading.
The market is getting more stable every year but there’s always a fresh batch of n00bs who FOMO’d in at the top to call the end of crypto whenever it gets a little choppy.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349861SleepingBear94x
Also let’s look at between feb and march this year and there after, seem familiar?Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349860kirtash93
I think that bears are converting into bulls.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349859SleepingBear94x
Good post OPFriday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349858KilzzoneXD
Recession just been announced to hit in UK (pretty sure we’re already in it anyway), inflation is still fucked and the world isn’t in any better shape then 3/4 months ago.
Peraonally can’t see any drastic economic improvement in the next year but…
Crypto is weird, maybe we’ll get a bullrun while everything is fucked.
Either way I’m gonna DCA and sink beersFriday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349857Huijausta
It’s the markets that are still in denial. They should restart shitting themselves come 2023.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349856BlubberWall
I simply chose to have a bearish mindset right now because I’ll either be right or pleasantly surprised. There’s no losingFriday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349855Nuewim
Not bears. Simply bull market will most likely come in 2024, after next BTC halving. That is not being denial, just using logic. Just one day of green and some people act like bear market ended… It is silly.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349854vjeva
I think we are all just in a aftershock or hangover phase. Let me use an real-life example:
You and your buddies went out, you went clubbing and one thing led to another, you started to drink heavily, some shady dudes sell you some drugs you are already tipsy enough to say YOLO and snork it until oblivion..and before you know it, you and your budddies are spending money all over the place, wasting expensive bottles and chasing girls…and then…blackout…
You wake up in your bed, your head is like a giant balon full of sharp needles…you are just standing there and saying WTF happen last night…
Now IMO we just passed the WTF happened part in crypto and we are trying to find that aspirin and find a way to make good breakfast.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349853TarkovReddit0r
Yea that’s what a bear market rally is. Bears getting rekt on their shorts causing green combined with accumulating bulls hoping bad time is over ![gif](emote|emo_pack_1|arrow_up)
At the end it comes down whether the uptrend survives and it ends up in an actually bullish market territory or if this is another bull trap. We’ll probably see more with CPI incoming next week
![gif](giphy|XKL1MHvk47OXC)Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349851ismirschlecht
You’re just seeing patterns. This doesn’t mean shit.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349850Laughingboy14
Or are the bulls getting caught in a trap?
Sky high inflation, a tight labour market and further rate hikes incoming, all combined with a recession has me bearish.
Stagflation is scary shitFriday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349849AGROCRAG004
Yep, honestly I think very likely we just saw the bottom…only time will tell but this is EXACTLY the inverse of the bull top we just had “it’s def gunna go higher” see how that worked out?Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349848TheHoodOG
The bears that you talk about are they in the room with us right now?Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349847PrinceZero1994
Past performance is not an indicator of future success.
Things are different today.
2018 was a crypto crash alone while we are in a recession today,Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349846ChemicalGreek
I think a lot of bears have been liquidated in the past month! They were manipulating the market until most of them lost it all by gambling it would go lower due to the bad times we’re having.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349845AromaticCarob
We are entering a recession which is likely to be long and brutal. Do you really believe this bear rally can be sustained?Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349844Spooky-poots
Did you miss the part of 2018 where everything crashed, then raised to double the price of where the bottom was, and then crashed to a new low?
Many think we’re in that rising point before another big drop, and I totally understand why with everything going on in the worldFriday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349843MostlyPseudonymous
Oh look, a sell signal.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349842SurenRongyao
only concern I can see is SPOT volumes are very low. Hardly any sign of retail interest.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 17:40 #349841Iam_Starving
I’m beginning to enter the “I don’t care about the market anymore” phase
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