- This topic has 6 replies, 1 voice, and was last updated 1 month, 3 weeks ago by Nada_Lives.
- Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 22:31 #350114TranquilTraderParticipant
***It’s a common misconception that energy usage scales up with the number of bitcoin transactions and that if BTC ever became widely adopted for payments, then the energy usage would be enough to boil the oceans.***
but then again:
***the effort spent securing the network scales automatically with the value of the transaction data on the blockchain—not the number of transactions. So the more value there is riding on the BTC network (because individuals value it more as reflected in the price), the more resources will be devoted to its security.***
If I understand this correctly, this would directly translate into:
**More users and demand leads into greater energy usage due to BTC’s price increasing.**
There have been some estimates of the network using around 170 TWh per year recently (some may have lower estimates).
Apparently there are currently approx. 83 million “wallet users” ([link](https://www.statista.com/statistics/647374/worldwide-blockchain-wallet-users/)), whatever that means – they cannot know how many wallets would be owned by a single user. So currently roughly only around 1 % of the world population are these “wallet users” (actual number of people could be much less though).
If we were to just naively extrapolate linearly BTC’s future energy usage for the entire population the number would be quite enormous. However, the value in the blockchain does not increase linearly during adoption, but instead the price growth is exponential.
**Given these numbers, how would you estimate BTC’s energy usage in the ultimate case of full adoption?**Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 22:45 #350115Mr_P_Nissaurus
I point out that Bitcoin’s energy usage is less than one-twentieth of one percent of global energy. Bitcoin’s energy use is not a problem.
Perhaps some of the other 99.95 percent of the global energy IS a problem, but not Bitcoin.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 22:58 #350120Nada_Lives
I won’t be estimating Bitcoin’s future energy usage. It’s already been flogged to death. Whatever it is will be whatever it is.Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 23:11 #350116kap89
Here’s a rough estimation script that you can paste into browser console: [script](https://gist.github.com/caderek/5d51e99e1fbb8370cee70397e531d1e0)
You can put your numbers in one of the examples and run it.
Better version with online UI: [BTC energy consumption calculator](https://codepen.io/caderek/full/bGvMYjB)Friday, August 5th, 2022 at 23:14 #350117Embarrassed-Spare-22
It would require a lot of guess work with when that would actually be, how much energy would cost then, and the price of BTC at that time.
Every bull market companies flood the space expanding their mining operations or starting new ones. Then when the bear market comes and the price crashes the less efficient miners using power that has competition for it’s use gets priced out leaving those using stranded or renewable power.
The mining companies that use stranded energy like flared/vented methane only pay.005 to .03 cents a kWh because there is no competition for that energy (it’s stranded) So I think over time through the cycles the majority of miners will be using stranded energy and it won’t matter how much it is because it would have been wasted otherwise.
I know this doesn’t answer your question directly but if you are worried about the use in the future it is something that should ease your mind.Saturday, August 6th, 2022 at 01:28 #350118road22
There is not a day that goes by that the world:
1 uses more energy.
2. becomes more energy efficient.
3. becomes more environmentally energy efficient, drifts away from carbon.
4. discovers better technologies for generating and storing green energy.
At the rate we are evolving in technology, the next 10 years will be more changes than the last 30 years. Energy will not be a concern when almost every home has solar power at a fraction of todays prices.Saturday, August 6th, 2022 at 02:45 #350119infopocalypse
Energy usage is irrelevant for environmental conversations. It’s how much CO2. It’s run on almost 60% stranded energy from renewables which is no emissions. It also can sequester methane which is up to 80x worse than CO2. It is the greenest industry by light years. The next closest is like 13% renewables with no methane cleanup potential.
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