- This topic has 14 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 2 months ago by UltimateCrypto.
- Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344052IlogyParticipant
BTC hit the high of $65k fifteen months ago. Nominally, it surpassed that ATH half a year later. However, if you account for inflation it appears it never actually did much more than retest the April highs. Furthermore, there were only a measly four days in which bitcoin nominally closed above those April highs.
This was very unusual for a bitcoin bull market, where traditionally, following the break of an ATH, bitcoin would commence to make an 80% or more move to the upside. Furthermore, unlike in every previous bull market, there was no classic blow off top, there was no euphoria, we basically touched the previous ATH and then gave up. Frankly, the bull market of 2020/21 felt like it got started, but never actually finished.
Meanwhile most alts—granted not some of the newer Wall Street favorites like SOL, but most alts favored by retail investors and crypto enthusiasts—hit their ATHs in May of 2021. The most famous of these was Dogecoin, but DeFi projects such as Uniswap and Chainlink that made up the bulk of DeFi summer followed the same pattern. Since then, a peak that occurred fourteen months ago, these alts are all down 90+ percent. Their charts look like the familiar classic crypto bubble pops that characterized bitcoin and ethereum prior to the influences of Wall Street. Their charts show that they made classic capitulation patterns last month. And they also show that they had mid bear market rallies that correspond more or less perfectly to the Q4 ATHs in BTC and ETH.
So crypto winter clearly started in Q2 of last year for most tokens, not Q4, and that was well before Fed tightening or macro influences. So on the one hand, it is clear that for most alts, the bear market began over a year ago. (Worth noting, the traditional length of a crypto bear market, from peak to trough, is one year.) On the other hand, the supposed peak of the bull market for the blue chip cryptos, and bitcoin in particular, left much to be desired and barely moved the needle from what was already accomplished six months prior.
All this almost suggest that the actual peak of the 2020/21 bull market occurred over a year ago, and that potentially—and here we must speculate—the ATHs we saw in November of last year were actually distortions in the blue chip charts coming from Wall Street insider anticipation of the announcement of a futures ETF. What should have been a bear market rally, perhaps, extended into a return to the previous ATHs—at least for those cryptos most closely influenced by Wall Street—because of classic buy the rumor, sell the news trading in anticipation of the ETF. The day that futures ETF was opened was literally the day the prices collapsed.
What are your takes on the strange nature of the recent bull market, and what implications does the divergence of the last bull market from more traditional crypto bull markets have for the current bear market?Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344053Baecchus
It began when I FOMO’d in.Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344054dirtyhandsome
fuck about shit 🤷🏼Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344055ImaFreemason
Definitely wasn’t Doge.Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344056mygallows
I think it’s safe to say we genuinely know nothing about anything.
Just my opinion.Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344057Parush9
I don’t know jackshit about crypto until another bull run happens in year or two .Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344058Superr_Steve
Yes this is a good take. Also, idk…Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344059ProcessMeMrHinkie
Crypto ***winter*** begins when the consensus think the ***bear*** has reached it’s bottom, but then it halves again in value and hibernates there for a year+ lol.Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344060Harold838383
The may high corresponded with ATHs from previous bull runs in many technical aspects (according to Ben cowen). Last bull run was different with regard to the double peakSunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344061jakekick1999
When BTC created a new ATH, that was already a stretch in the market in terms of people buying versus selling. Then when we made the next ATH we were already heading towards a lot of global economic problems.
I would argue that we are pretty much following the trail of “free money” that investors have to gambleSunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344062fan_of_hakiksexydays
I don’t think you can really qualify a bear market as something where an asset goes from $35K to $69K.
Bearish sentiments don’t pump prices like that.
The bear market started in mid-November when we started the long downward trend.Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344063VirtualBlake
I think we get too hung up on comparing current market conditions to previous ones. We could start a run up now to a new ATH of $100k and then 5 years from now 2021 and 2022 would be considered one bull run.
It’ll probably be easier to categorize all of this several years from now and in a lot of ways it probably isn’t super relevant. However, if I had to choose now I would say the November ATH was the end of the bull run.
I was extremely shocked that Bitcoin didn’t see a massive upside after that, but it’s just more proof that previous patterns aren’t always going to repeat.Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344064CatBoy191114
Think crypto winter is due to global events, rather than btc or doge hitting an ATH…Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344065rustyold
It bagan when I started buying.Sunday, July 24th, 2022 at 05:46 #344066UltimateCrypto
The next ath will be $420k.
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